The music industry is shutting down all around us, as is most of the world, it seems. The viral pandemic spreading around has redefined what life means, and how we are going to exist moving forward. There are far larger questions to answer, but we're here to talk about the music industry. Just in that little slice of the world, the disruption is immense, and possibly irreparable.
Virtually every live performance between now and the summer has already been cancelled, and it's only a matter of time until the rest follow suit. In the blink of an eye, the touring industry went from a monolithic entity that was subsidizing the entire existence of music as a commercial art form to one that no longer exists. The bands we love are now essentially out of work, save for the pennies that all but the largest bands get out of streaming.
The scariest part is there is no end in sight. Every day, festivals and shows further into the future are getting called off, and no one can tell us when to expect life to begin going back to something resembling normal. Maybe we'll be able to get back to seeing bands on the road by the summer. Maybe we won't. Maybe this situation will carry on through the rest of the year, and we will become so inured by our new reality that the industry never recovers.
Think about that. There is a very real possibility that we are essentially quarantined away from large groups of people for months, maybe years. If that happens, live music will be the least of our worries, but I can easily see a future in which we never go back to where we are. As part of preventative measures, we are never again allowed to cram ourselves shoulder-to-shoulder into sweaty bars, or arenas with the populations of medium-sized cities. It might have never been a good idea for that kind of human density to have been allowed, but thinking about it in the future almost feels foolish already. Yes, we might get past this moment in time, but we might not. And even if we do, who is going to want to run the risk of it happening again?
Music will go on, because it always does, but it won't be the same as it was. It can't be.
Bands will eventually head back on the road, but audiences will be smaller. Fewer people will want to crowd together, both out of fear, and due to our new learned experience. With less people, either prices for tickets will make the shows exclusively for those at the top of the income ladder, or bands will simply be making even less money than they already do. I fail to see any way things will return to the level they were at, let alone grow.
And we can't go back to the days of making money off physical sales, either. Streaming is the reality we live with, but the physical sales that do exist are now imperiled. To prioritize the household goods needed, and being hoarded right now, even Amazon is temporarily ceasing shipments of CDs and vinyl into their warehouses. How long will we be deprived of even the opportunity to buy albums before we grow so used to that we stop altogether? Downloading was the first disruption, streaming the second, and this perhaps the final blow.
I don't know what the future holds, but I know tomorrow will look different than today. I don't know if there will still be a steady stream of albums to talk about over the new few months, nor do I know when things will settle into a new normal. All I know is the world has changed dramatically, and faster than we could have ever imagined. It won't be for good, or for our good, but we have to deal with it. I'll let you know if I figure out how.
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